Adjusted HIV prevalence in pregnant women in urban and rural areas is applied to the
population (15-49) in urban and non-urban areas to produce estimates of the number of adults
living with HIV/AIDS in the two areas. When combined this gives the estimate of adults
living with HIV/AIDS in the country.
The software package Spectrum is used to produce estimates of adult incidence and mortality,
as well as estimates for children infected via mother-to-child transmission and orphans.
Spectrum uses the prevalence curves and applies a set of assumptions to produce age-and
sex-specific estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for adults and children. These
assumptions are: 1) female-to-male prevalence ration, 2) effects of HIV on fertility, 3)
transmission of HIV from mother to child, 4) survival time from infection to death for adults
and children, 5) age patterns of prevalence, and 6) effects and coverage levels for ARVs.
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