The future of HIV and AIDS in India
Various groups have made predictions about the effect that AIDS will have on India and the rest of Asia in the future, and there has been a lot of dispute about the accuracy of these estimates. For instance, a 2002 report by the CIA's National Intelligence Council predicted 20 million to 25 million AIDS cases in India by 2010 - more than any other country in the world.87 India's government responded by calling these figures completely inaccurate
, and accused those who cited them of spreading panic
.88 The government has also disputed predictions that India’s epidemic is on an African trajectory
, although it claims to acknowledge the seriousness of the crisis. 89
Indeed, recent surveys do suggest that national HIV prevalence has probably fallen slightly in recent years. This trend is mainly due to a drop in infections in southern states; in other areas there has been no significant decline.
“In the north-east, the dual HIV epidemic driven by unsafe sex and injecting drug use is highly concerning. Moreover, there are many areas in the northern states where HIV is increasing, particularly among injecting drug users.” Sujatha Rao, Director General of NACO 90
Even if the country's epidemic does not match the severity of those in southern Africa, it is clear that HIV and AIDS will have a devastating effect on the lives of millions of Indians for many years to come. It is essential that effective action is taken to minimise this impact.
“The challenges India faces to overcome this epidemic are enormous. Yet India possesses in ample quantities all the resources needed to achieve universal access to HIV prevention and treatment… defeating AIDS will require a significant intensification of our efforts, in India, just as in the rest of the world” Peter Piot, former Executive Director of UNAIDS.
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