Key findings of the 2008-2009 HIV estimates

Key findings of the 2008-2009 HIV estimates
HIV Incidence
One of the key characteristics of this round of estimations is that it allowed for generating
estimates of the HIV incidence (number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic
projections revealed that the number of new annual HIV infections has declined by more than
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50% during the last decade. This is one of the most important evidence on the impact of the
various interventions under National AIDS Control Programme and scaled-up prevention
strategies. It is estimated that India had approximately 1.2 lakh new HIV infections in 2009, as
against 2.7 lakh in 2000.
While this trend is evident in most states, some low prevalence states have shown a slight
increase in the number of new infections over the past two years, that underscores the need for
the programme to focus more on these states with low prevalence, but high vulnerability.
Of the 1.2 lakh estimated new infections in 2009, the six high prevalence states account for only
39% of the cases, while the states of Orissa, Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat account for 41% of new infections.
Adult HIV prevalence
The estimated adult HIV prevalence in India was 0.32% (0.26% – 0.41%) in 2008 and 0.31%
(0.25% – 0.39%) in 2009. The adult prevalence is 0.26% among women and 0.38% among
men in 2008, and 0.25% among women and 0.36% among men in 2009.
Among the states, Manipur has shown the highest estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.40%,
followed by Andhra Pradesh (0.90%), Mizoram (0.81%), Nagaland (0.78%), Karnataka (0.63%)
and Maharashtra (0.55%). Besides these states, Goa, Chandigarh, Gujarat, Punjab and Tamil
Nadu have shown estimated adult HIV prevalence greater than national prevalence (0.31%),
while Delhi, Orissa, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh & Puducherry have shown estimated adult HIV
prevalence of 0.28-0.30%. All other states/UTs have lower levels of HIV. (See Annex-1)